Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page.  Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum.

Our Angel's Corner archive is here.

OCTOBER 19,  2016

11:55 P.M. ET:  The first debate poll is out from CNN.  It has Clinton winning, 52-39.  But we should point out that CNN's polls always have Clinton winning debates, so I don't attach too much significance to them.  Besides, 52% isn't much of a number for someone who, presumably, is the leading presidential candidate.

The big story is still Trump's blunder.  Most news organizations we've checked are leading their coverage with that:  Trump's announcement that he might not accept the result of the election. 

In 1976, incumbent President Gerald R. Ford committed a similar blunder in a debate with Jimmy Carter.  Ford said that Poland was a free nation.  Of course, it wasn't.  The blunder cost Ford dearly.  It made him seem uninformed, and it infuriated families that had escaped Eastern Europe.  Carter, much to our regret, went on to victory.

The conventional wisdom that I'm hearing tonight is that Trump's blunder destroyed an otherwise good performance.  We'll see.  The public has a way of surprising us.   

11:08 P.M. ET:  A number of first impressions are in from the debate.  There's a general (not unanimous) feeling that Trump had a good night on most issues, but that, once again, he committed serious unforced errors that compromised his performance.  The big headline is his statement that he might not accept the results of the election.  Whaa..?  That's the kind of statement you only make after the election if there's clear proof of fraud, and fraud sufficient to affect the outcome.  Even some Trump supporters among the punditry winced. Trump seemed to be showing contempt for American democracy.

Also, Trump, toward the end, referred to Clinton as a "nasty woman."  Absolutely unnecessary.  Let the public make that judgment.  If she's nasty, they'll know it.  Trump merely called attention to his own problems with women.

As for Clinton, the first impressions are bland.  She held her own.  She didn't make any brilliant points, and, as Brit Hume pointed out, clearly directed her comments to her own constituencies – blacks, women, LGBT, other minorities.  Hers was a kind of "get out the vote" performance.  No one is raving.   She's Hillary.   She doesn't dazzle or move audiences.

On balance, Trump could have claimed a victory, but his unforced errors muddy the waters.  We're looking forward to the first polls.

October 19, 2016       Permalink

THE FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WILL WRAP UP SOON.  THERE'LL BE NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT SO WE CAN ASSESS THE DEBATE AND REPORT ON THE REACTION.  STAND BY.

FASCINATING, BUT VIEW IT WITH SKEPTICISM – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  Is it possible, just possible, that the U.S. election might follow the pattern of Britain's recent Brexit vote – where the pollsters got it all wrong?  Read with care, from Britain's Independent:   

It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it.

Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump.

Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican.

That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.

The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician.

It comes despite a campaign bedevilled and derailed by ugly accusations of sexual abuse on the part of Trump from a growing list of women, together with his claims that the election is somehow being “rigged”.

William Hill’s spokesman and resident betting expert Graham Sharpe, an industry veteran of 44 years standing, said: “It’s very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.”

COMMENT:  Well, okay, it's an interesting theory.  But I wouldn't bet on it.

October 19, 2016       Permalink

THE BATTLE FOR MOSUL – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  The battle to retake Mosul, Iraq, from ISIS has begun.   It will be bloody and bitter, and possibly unleash a new stream of refugees on the world.  And there is another ominous possibility.  from Reuters: 

The United States expects Islamic State to use crude chemical weapons as it tries to repel an Iraqi-led offensive on the city of Mosul, U.S. officials say, although adding that the group's technical ability to develop such weapons is highly limited.

U.S. forces have begun to regularly collect shell fragments to test for possible chemical agents, given Islamic State's use of mustard agent in the months before Monday's launch of the Mosul offensive, one official said.

In a previously undisclosed incident, U.S. forces confirmed the presence of a sulfur mustard agent on Islamic State munition fragments on Oct. 5, a second official said. The Islamic State had targeted local forces, not U.S. or coalition troops.

"Given ISIL's reprehensible behavior and flagrant disregard for international standards and norms, this event is not surprising," the second official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity, and using an acronym for Islamic State.

U.S. officials do not believe Islamic State has been successful so far at developing chemical weapons with particularly lethal effects, meaning that conventional weapons are still the most dangerous threat for advancing Iraqi and Kurdish forces - and any foreign advisers who get close enough.

Sulfur mustard agents can cause blistering on exposed skin and lungs. At low doses, however, that would not be deadly.

I love how the reporter tries to minimize the impact of one of the most painful and disfiguring of weapons. 

Roughly 5,000 U.S. forces are in Iraq. More than 100 of them are embedded with Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces involved with the Mosul offensive, advising commanders and helping them ensure coalition air power hits the right targets, officials said. Still, those forces are not at the front lines, they added.

COMMENT:  Gee, I don't want to be disruptive, but where are all these chemical weapons coming from?  The Syrian government also has a supply.   George W. Bush was ridiculed when weapons inspectors couldn't find stockpiles of WMD after the Iraq war, but the stuff keeps turning up.

Just askin'.

October 19, 2016       Permalink

RUMBLE IN LAS VEGAS TONIGHT – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  The final presidential debate takes place in Las Vegas tonight.  The big question is whether Donald Trump will do something new or different to resurrect his troubled campaign.  One poll out this morning, from Rasmussen, shows an even race:

Dead even. With nearly one-in-10 voters still looking beyond the top four candidates or undecided and less than three weeks to go until Election Day.

Today’s Rasmussen Reports White House Watch telephone and online survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump each picking up 42% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Seven percent (7%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while one percent (1%) opt for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. But three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

But, frankly, that's an outlier.  The Fox poll, out yesterday, is more reflective of the polling averages: 

Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Donald Trump with just three weeks until Election Day.

She has a six-point lead over Trump, 45-39 percent, in a new Fox News Poll of likely voters. Clinton was up by seven points last week (45-38 percent) and by two in early October (44-42 percent). Gary Johnson stands at 5 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent.

In the head-to-head matchup, Clinton’s up by 49-42 percent. It was 49-41 percent at the end of last week (Oct. 10-12).

COMMENT:  The general feeling among pundits is that Clinton holds a five to ten-point lead, and that she is heavily favored to win the election.  Indeed, much of the political discussion is now shifting to control of Congress.  The Democrats are given a pretty good chance of taking control of the Senate, especially if there's a last-minute Clinton surge, and an outside chance of taking the House.  But it should be pointed out that the Republican candidates are narrowly ahead in most of the battleground states.

Ticket splitting has decreased in recent elections, but that trend may be reversed this year.

October 19,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 18,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

CAUGHT – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   A Democratic operative campaigning for Hilary Clinton has resigned and another has been fired after a video surfaced purportedly showing members of their organization discussing ways to incite violence at Donald Trump rallies.  Robert Creamer — the husband of Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Illinois — said he was 'stepping back' from his role after conservative activist James O'Keefe released footage appearing to show senior staffers plotting ways to undermined the Republican candidate's campaign events.   Isn't there a crime in there somewhere?  I want to see the law involved.

I LOVE IT – FROM PAGE SIX, NEW YORK POST:   President Obama’s Kenyan-born, half-brother Malik will be in the audience in Las Vegas Wednesday night when Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton square off in their third and final debate.  Malik — an American citizen who lives in Washington, DC, when he’s not in Kenya — says he will be a guest of Trump, the Republican nominee he supports for president.  “I’m excited to be at the debate. Trump can make America great again,” Malik told The Post.  “I look very much forward to meeting and being with Malik,” Trump said. “He gets it far better than his brother.”  Must be some bad history between Barack and Malik.  Or they were after the same girl.

THIS IS SERIOUS – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   Concerns over the age of child refugees from Calais intensified yesterday, as a second group arrived in London.  One migrant in particular, wearing a blue hoodie with stubble on his chin, was rated by a facial recognition program as having the features of a 38-year-old.
He was one of 14 to be bussed to Croydon from the notorious Jungle camp shanty town before it is demolished by the French authorities.   They followed 14 who arrived on Monday, as Britain works to reunite unaccompanied youngsters from war-torn countries with family members in the UK.  But it has emerged the Home Office has no way of verifying the migrants’ ages before they come to Britain, stoking concerns about adults posing as children to take advantage of the scheme.   Figures released yesterday reveal that two-thirds of ‘child’ refugees who were quizzed by the Home Office about their age were found to be adults.  Oh really?  And why were those adults trying to get into Britain, having originated in countries like Syria?  Anyone interested? 

October 18, 2016       Permalink

STATEMENT FROM RUSSIA – WE'RE BACK AND WE'RE STRONG – AT 11:15 A.M. ET:  The show of force is a classic device to demonstrate a country's power and resolve.  No one does it better than Vladmir Putin.   From Britain's Sun:

A FLEET of Russian nuclear ships have been spotted steaming out of base – and it is heading for Britain.

Vladimir Putin‘s policy of gunboat diplomacy continued as a giant aircraft carrier and nuclear submarine were among eight vessels snapped sailing south past Norway yesterday.

The fearsome fleet is headed for Russia's Mediterranean base in Tartus, Syria.

But first, the ships are set to pass through the English Channel in the latest act of sabre-rattling from Moscow.

Royal Navy warships are being readied to intercept the fleet which could pass within miles of the British coast.

Russia's flagship aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was amongst the ships to depart from the Arctic port of Severomorsk on Saturday.

The 55,000-tonne colossus is travelling with the Pyotr Veliky battlecruiser, the Vice-Admiral Kulakov destroyer and large anti-submarine ships.

The convoy was caught on camera by Norwegian spy planes on Monday.

COMMENT:  We can't seem to accept that we are in a new Cold War.  Russian forces are being built up, Russia is again producing front-line fighter aircraft, and Moscow has moved back into the Mideast, challenging American supremacy in the region.  The Obama administration has answered with a shrug.

We are short of military power, reversing the might of the Reagan years.  Other countries notice, and may well be tempted.  That's how wars begin.

October 18, 2016       Permalink

FOLLOWING THE MONEY – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  First rule of journalism:  follow the money.  So let's follow the money of journalists.  From IBD: 

A lengthy piece published by the Center for Public Integrity finds that people who work in journalism have given $382,000 to Hillary's campaign, compared with about $14,000 to Trump.

That works out to a ratio of 27.3-to-1.

In some cases, these are reporters who are covering the presidential election.

The story leads with New Yorker television critic Emily Nussbaum, who just won a Pulitzer Prize, and who gave $250 to Clinton before describing Trump's campaign as "ugly and xenophobic."

"Together, these journalist-donors work for news organizations great and small, from The New York Times to sleepy, small-town dailies. While many of them don't primarily edit or report on political news, some do," the Center explains.

All these donations are despite the fact that many news outlets restrict or prohibit political donations for the obvious reason that it undermines a reporter's credibility as an objective observer. Even if a news outlet didn't have such a policy, you'd think journalists wouldn't be so dumb as to advertise their political bias.

There's nothing particularly wrong journalists pushing an ideological viewpoint, so long as they make it clear to readers and viewers what they are doing.

The problem is that the mainstream press keeps pretending to be nonpartisan when they are, in fact, little more than a PR shop for Democrats.

In business, this is called false advertising, and it happens to be illegal.

COMMENT:  Press corruption is one of the most critical issues facing this democracy, but we depend on the press to cover it.  Some chance of that.

It will be the alternative media that will eventually get this subject front and center.  Whether it will have any effect is questionable.  Biased news organizations have shown a willingness to accept decreased circulation or ratings as the cost of their bias. 

Many journalists really don't care what they're doing to the credibility of their profession.  They're on a mission.  They have a higher calling.  Don't bother them with facts.

October 18, 2016       Permalink

MORE EMBARRASSMENT – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  The sheer quantity of information released by Wikileaks and federal investigations is forcing at least some journalists to revisit the whole issue of Clinton corruption.  How delightful.  From Fox: 

Republicans pressured the State Department on Monday to remove Undersecretary for Management Patrick Kennedy after newly released FBI records showed he offered a "quid pro quo" with federal authorities during the Hillary Clinton email probe.

Documents revealed claims that Kennedy tried to horse-trade with the FBI, offering additional slots for the bureau overseas if they would de-classify a particular email from Clinton’s server marked “SECRET.” The files also revealed he repeatedly tried to “influence” the bureau’s decision when his offer was denied, even taking his plea up the chain of command. The allegation of a "quid pro quo" was first reported by Fox News on Saturday.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said at a campaign rally in Wisconsin that the new revelation was worse than Watergate.

"This is one of the great miscarriages of justice in the history of our country," he said.

Trump went on to accuse the State Department of "trying to cover up Hillary's crimes of sending classified information on a server our enemies could easily access."

He also blasted Kennedy, saying his actions were a sign of a "cover-up."

"The FBI documents show that Under-Secretary of State Patrick Kennedy made the request for altering classification as part of a 'quid pro quo,' in other words a deal," Trump told supporters. "This is felony corruption. Under-Secretary Kennedy needs to resign."

COMMENT:  The issue of Clinton's corrupt past may well surface again in the last three weeks of the campaign, as Republicans try to refocus Trump's often confused and undisciplined run for the White House.  Will it work?  I have no idea.  But after weeks of discussing Miss Universe's weight and allegations of past behavior toward women, Trump needs all the help he can get.

October 18,  2016     Permalink